BLUF: I found an essay by Nick Bostrom that perfectly coincides with my
For me, belief is not an all-or-nothing thing—believe or disbelieve, accept or reject. Instead, I have degrees of belief, a subjective probability distribution over different possible ways the world could be. This means I am constantly changing my mind about all sorts of things, as I reflect or gain more evidence. While I don’t always think explicitly in terms of probabilities, I often do so when I give careful consideration to some matter. And when I reflect on my own cognitive processes, I must acknowledge the graduated nature of my beliefs.
-Nick Bostrom, 2008, Response to the 2008 EDGE Question: “What Have You Changed Your Mind About?”